Structural optimism in public pension plan return forecasts

Two Sigma Investment’s Jeffrey Saret and Subhadeep Mitra urge caution when evaluating the return expectations of US schemes


Relatively few asset allocators share their point forecasts and investment strategies, but US public pension plans offer a notable exception. These plans annually publish their portfolio return expectations and asset class allocations, and the Public Plans Data (PPD) from Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research conveniently makes this information accessible.